A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
